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Gifts for all occasions in the Galleria! Subscribe to the "What is the Deal?" mailing list. The "What is the Deal?" Deal-of-the-Week: Movielink(TM)−Download Hollywood Movies & New Releases October 10, 2004 What is the Deal with Hindsight? By Jan A. Larson Hindsight is a wonderful thing. It allows pundits and politicians to sit back and say, "I told you so" to the decision makers that could not have benefited from today's 20/20 clarity. Such is the case with the President's decision in early 2003 to topple Saddam Hussein. Based on every piece of intelligence data from various sources around the world, Saddam Hussein had the capability of producing weapons of mass destruction and likely had stockpiles of them. When considering his history of behavior, such as his invasion of Kuwait and his gassing of the Kurds in northern Iraq, it was more likely than not that he would again use them himself or pass them along to terrorist organizations. We now know that he did not have stockpiles of WMDs or active weapons production programs. The recently released Duelfer report indicates that he did, however, retain the capability of producing WMDs and was intent on doing so once UN sanctions had collapsed. With the clarity of hindsight, many have claimed that the invasion of Iraq was a mistake given what we now know about WMDs. Remembering that hindsight is only useful "tomorrow" but not "today," let us assume that given the same intelligence information, that the President had decided, as John Kerry has insisted, to allow UN inspections to continue for an extended period of time before going into Iraq. Obviously, as we now know, those UN inspectors would not have found WMD stockpiles or active weapons production facilities. As the process continued and no weapons were found, Saddam would certainly have become more emboldened and while capitalizing on the corrupt UN Oil-for-Food program, would have not only continued to enrich himself, but would have continued to enrich the French, Russian and Chinese officials participating in the fraud. This, in turn, would have led to further weakening of UN sanctions as the conspirators actively favored Saddam in the UN and the general support for continued inspections eroded over time. It is not a stretch to expect that eventually UN sanctions on Saddam would have completely disintegrated leaving him with no reason not to reconstitute his weapons programs. As to what he might have done with those weapons is anyone's guess, but no rational person could possibly conclude that WMDs in the hands of Saddam Hussein would be a good thing. If that weren't enough, Saddam's brutal regime would have continued to terrorize the Iraqi citizens while his two murderous sons carried out their well-documented crimes against humanity. No one disagrees that removing Saddam Hussein was necessary, but despite the benefit of hindsight that revealed that the WMD intelligence was flawed, the fact remains that the risk of Saddam concealing WMDs or allowing him to simply wait out the UN inspection process before reconstituting his WMD programs would have left the world a much more dangerous place today. Saddam's miscalculations and the complicity of the French, in particular, ultimately led to his downfall. Whether he actually had WMDs or not in early 2003, the risk of leaving him in power was too great. Had Saddam "defeated" the U. S. and the UN by waiting out the doomed-to-fail weapons inspections and remained in power, it is quite plausible that he would now be producing WMDs. Unfortunately, in that scenario the U.S. and especially the UN, would have virtually no way of stopping him given the realities of the political climate in this country and around the world. -- Send feedback to the author. The "What is the Deal?" column will appears weekly on the Pie of Knowledge website. Guest submissions are welcome and encouraged. To submit an article to "What is the Deal?" click here. To subscribe to the "What is the Deal?" mailing list and receive early notification when a new column is available, click here. The Pie of Knowledge will never, ever divulge email addresses to any third party for any reason unless so ordered by a court of law. Contributions to the Pie of Knowledge are greatly appreciated. 
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